"Regime Change and Ethnic Cleavages in Africa"

Here is my very brief review of Daniel Posner's excellent research:
Regime Change and Ethnic Cleavages in Africa

Political openings in Africa present opportunities for citizens with little or no stake in the economic wealth of their country to “maximize the amount of resources they can secure from the state” (3). Politics in poor societies tend to revolve around a “transfer of resources” from those with power and access to those without. The likelihood that one is a part of the power grab is dependent upon ethnic ties. “Ethnicity assumes a position of prominence in election campaigns” as individuals see their only means of empowerment through a winner take all result. Africans rely upon their ethnic ties in their daily lives through forms of reciprocity. Not surprisingly, they rely upon these same ethnics ties in the electoral process. Iraq presents a contemporary international example.

In addition, strong presidentialism (a strong central president) exists in Africa that tends to place the leader “above the law”. Implications include a minimized legislative process and a centralization of political power in multi-party elections (4). When voters feel powerless through the legislature, they will seek access in winner take all presidential elections.

So we see that voters cast their ballot along ethnic lines. But which ethnic lines? Ethnic lines are made up of various linguistic, cultural, religious, territorial distinctions which both the voter and the politician feel affiliated with, so how do they choose? Posner concludes that voters choose the group affiliation which will provide them with the greatest level of representation and rewards (i.e. resource allocations) in the new or sustained government.

Why individuals choose some identities over others when they go through the process of “voting one’s identity” is what the author presents as new information.

In single-party elections, competition revolves around local-level ethnic cleavages – tribe, sub-tribe, and clan divisions. In multi-party formats, it revolves around broader, national scale ethnic cleavages – language groups and broader ethno-regional divisions. He uses Zambia and Kenya as case studies. “The shift from one-party to multi-party rules transformed the kinds of ethnic cleavages that mattered in politics” (17).